Postsecondary success isn’t something that happens only after a student leaves high school; it’s the culmination of many experiences along their journey. This project brings together critical data – both numbers and stories – from middle grades through college completion, so adults can see the full picture and know where to best focus support. Explore, reflect, and share!
Numbers and Narratives
Grades and attendance reveal who needs support
Being “on track” in middle grades — typically a 3.0 GPA and 90% attendance — gives the clearest information about who will need more support to succeed in high school.
Adolescents thrive when adults notice the whole child
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Helping students build positive academic mindsets, social skills, and effective learning strategies improves their behaviors and perseverance. That combination leads to better grades. These are all skills that adults can help build, rather than fixed traits students either have or don’t.
“If it wasn’t for me hearing about college back in grammar school, I don’t think I would have gone.”
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“If it wasn’t for me hearing about college back in grammar school, I don’t think I would have gone.” — Zayquan
Adolescence is a critical time for brain development
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After early childhood, adolescence is the second most important period for brain development. Changes in their brains make adolescents more willing to try new things and take risks, more motivated by peers, and more focused on developing their own identity and searching for purpose.
9th grade is difficult, even for high-achieving students
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Fewer than half of students who earned a 3.0 GPA in 8th grade maintained that GPA in 9th grade. Every student needs intentional support to succeed through this transition.
“She still supported me throughout all my decisions, everything.”
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“In sixth grade we didn't really have a teacher so I kind of got out of school. She told me ‘yeah, you’re not the Ky’Nya remember.’ And that really threw me off. So I'm like, ‘okay, yeah, I got to get back on my square’. And she just never, even when she did say that, she still supported me throughout all my decisions, everything.” — Ky’Nya
Missing school has a long-reaching negative impact
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Low attendance in the middle grades is linked to weaker academic skills, lower grades, and lower high school graduation rates. Improving attendance in the middle grades can help positively impact a student’s long-term outcomes.
“You’re figuring out more about yourself without you really knowing it.”
“I just enjoyed it. Finding out what you enjoy is the good thing that came out of classes at the time. You’re figuring out more about yourself without you really knowing it.” — Alejandro
Middle school grades and attendance build a foundation for success
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Improving grades and attendance in the middle grades can have a large impact on high school success—even more than improving test scores. Middle grades support should focus on grades and attendance, not just test performance.
“He showed everyone respect, and because of that, everyone respected him.”
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“I think a big part of it was the way that he showed everyone respect, and because of that, everyone respected him.” — Kimaya
The way students experience school is powerful
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Students who feel more valued and supported at school are more likely to have stronger attendance, graduate high school, and enroll in college. Investing in how school feels, not just what it teaches, is a real lever for outcomes.
Explore the Data
What is 9th Grade On-Track?
In Chicago Public Schools, a student is on-track if they earn at least 6.5 total credits by the end of ninth grade, meaning they can fail no more than 1 semester course (including non-core subjects).
What do Adolescent Brains Need?
9th graders' brains are still developing—they need clear instruction and support to build skills like perseverance, organization, and a growth mindset.
Fostering these skills can help students improve their success both inside and outside the classroom.
Growing Pains and Gains
On average, students who struggled in middle grades but get back on-track in 9th grade have strong academic outcomes. In fact, they had better outcomes than students who excelled in the middle grades but were off-track in 9th grade.
9th Grade On-Track—Why Track it?
Students' on-track status in 9th grade provides early information about who will need more support to graduate high school on time.
Predictive Ability of Indicators of High School Graduation
9OT is more predictive of high school graduation than all other factors (race, gender, test scores, zip code, etc.) combined.
9th Grade GPA—What's the Point?
A GPA of 3.0 or higher in 9th grade sets students on a path to success in college.
9th grade GPA is more predictive of college enrollment and persistence than standardized test scores.
Every Class Counts
Passing all classes in 9th grade--including electives--makes it much more likely that a student will graduate from high school.
Students with zero course failures graduated at a rate of 90%, compared to about 70% for students who failed either a core OR non-core course.
“Near the end of freshman year... everything was established.”
“Freshman year is always the little roughest year, but near the end of freshman year, I feel like this when everything was established.” –Zabiina
“Will they be able to understand me?”
Why is High School Graduation an important metric?
High school academic achievement is one of the clearest predictors of college success. Students who graduate from high school with a GPA of 3.0 or above have at least a 50% chance of graduating from a four-year college within six years. To graduate from high school on time, students need a minimum of 24 credits.
10th grade can be a critical turning point
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Falling off-track in 9th grade doesn’t have to define a student’s path. Students who fell off-track in 9th grade, but then got back on-track in 10th grade, graduated from high school at rates similar to the district average. Recovery matters too — not just prevention.
“I had that 504 plan and had a relationship with my counselors that I feel helped me throughout school.”
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“All throughout junior high and high school, I had that 504 plan and had a relationship with my counselors that I feel helped me throughout school. Then when I got to college, I didn't really have that. They had a similar position at Howard but I did reach out to that person and I never did get a response back. I feel like in that way, I wasn't supported as much as I would have wanted to have been and had the resources that I felt like I should have had.” — Kiara
10th graders still need dedicated supports to succeed
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Being on-track in 9th grade isn’t a guarantee of staying that way. Nearly half of students who were off-track in 10th grade had been on-track in their 9th grade year–a reminder that support cannot stop after 9th grade.
“I was kind of living what my parents wanted.”
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“And then I'm like, what do I do? I feel like I'm playing catch up. So basically at that time I really didn't have anything in mind at that time. I was just, at the time I didn't really know I wanted to be a business major, so it kind of felt like I was kind of living what my parents wanted.” — Yan
On-track in 9th grade matters, but it’s not the whole story
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Staying on-track in 10th grade matters just as much as starting on-track in 9th. 93% of students who finished both 9th and 10th grade on-track graduated from high school, versus 43% of students who were on-track in 9th grade but fell off-track in 10th grade.
Progress is reaching every community, but not every school
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High school graduation rates have increased for students from every community area in the city, but not every high school has seen the same progress yet. This is a reflection of the supports and resources allocated to schools, rather than the innate abilities of their students.
“I knew a lot of things, but I couldn't reflect my knowledge on quizzes or tests.”
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“But I feel like during high school, I just never really had the time to think through what I wanted to do, what were my abilities…I just didn't think too much about like college or university. It was kind of like me just trying to make it through and, and with that, I also have ADHD, so that was also like a big impact in my academics, even though I didn't know it and I wasn't like diagnosed until I was like later on in college, and that played a big role because systematically it's different and difficult to go through that in high school because you don't really get the accommodations that you need and sometimes you would just view as always late or you were lazy …I knew a lot of things, but I couldn't reflect my knowledge on quizzes or tests or paper.” — Paola
Former English Learners outperform their peers
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Students who once received support to learn English had higher on-track rates, high school graduation rates, GPAs, and SAT scores than the district average, demonstrating that learning English isn’t a barrier to success.
“I don't think you can really fathom how big the decision is until you've already started making it.”
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“I think it's really, I don't think you can really fathom how big the decision is until you've already started making it. And I think junior me was not fathoming it, but also junior me didn't feel limited…Working a real part-time job at the time doing sports and stuff. Your mind is focused on the next three days of whatever you're doing. Your head's not all the way in it. Especially kids with low income in 50 other things.” — Allen
Belonging and safety are linked to high attendance
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Absences are lower in schools where students feel connected to their peers and teachers. If schools want to move the needle on attendance, building safety and belonging are key levers. This is even more true post-COVID.
Why is college enrollment an important metric?
Students’ choice of college influences their likelihood of earning a college degree. Colleges with strong graduation track records — and that fit a student’s unique financial, geographic, and cultural needs — are linked to higher completion. But college isn’t the only path forward, and our system currently has little data on outcomes for students who choose non-college pathways, like military service, trade school, or the workforce. That’s a real blind spot in how we measure success.
“They did an interview on the spot, and I got that job that day.”
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“They used to have job fairs at Olive Harvey that the teachers would encourage us to go upstairs, get a job and stuff. So they let some of us go up there and Navy Pier was up there. They did an interview on the spot, and I had got that job that day.” — Drea
High school GPA predicts college completion better than test scores
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Test scores impact which colleges students have access to, but don’t strongly predict how a student will do once there. A high schooler’s GPA does.
“I'm very goal oriented. If I don't have a goal, I'm aimless.”
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“And so [my advisor] was like, ‘but if you get a 3.5 again, we could be looking at Champagne.’ Now I have a goal. I'm very goal oriented. If I don't have a goal, I'm aimless. And so [my advisor] was like, ‘look, if you do what you got to do, you can make [Urbana Champaign] happen.’ So I finished with a 3.2 that semester.” — Ilyas
Immediately enrolling in college improves completion odds
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Fewer than 10% of Chicago Public Schools students who delayed college enrollment completed a degree within six years. Enrolling immediately after high school, rather than delaying, is linked to significantly better completion odds.
“As far as what I want to do once I get to college… I don't feel like we really focused much on that.”
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“We were focused on getting into college and all of that stuff, but as far as what I want to do once I get to college or what I want to do after college, what I'm going to college for, I don't feel like we really focused much on that.” — Kiara
Students from all types of CPS schools succeed at selective colleges
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High-achieving students from any CPS high school — not just selective enrollment high schools — can go on to succeed at the most selective colleges. Success at these colleges isn’t limited to students from a specific type of high school.
“I thought about what my family was going to do without me being at home.”
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“I thought about what my family was going to do without me being at home, without me being a third parent or having the access that they've been used to... I think I applied to maybe one school out of no two schools out of state, and one of them, I think even though I applied to them, I didn't really consider them as options because of my priorities at that time.” — Valeria
Academic match, affordability, and fit all matter in college choice
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Students’ odds of persistence and success in college increase when a college fits who they are, what they can afford, and what they’re academically ready for. Match, affordability, and fit deserve as much attention as admission itself.
“The finance has worked, the distance work, the culture of the campus worked for me.”
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“So the finance has worked, the distance work, the culture of the campus worked for me. So that's kind of what helped me make my decision.” — Tashawnna
“It's hard to envision what [college] even looks like.”
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“We went to Lake Forest College, we went to Northwestern and I was like, ‘oh my God. I this exists…’I'm not saying like [college] wasn't brought up, but like for someone that's never seen college or someone that's never experienced someone that has an academic profession, it's hard to envision like what [college] even looks like for you or like what you can even do with that.” — Karla
What is college persistence?
The College Persistence metric measures whether a student was enrolled in college during both the fall semester directly after high school graduation and the subsequent fall semester — though not necessarily at the same institution. ) Persistence is one of the earliest and strongest signals of t whether a student is on track to complete college.
Taking time off from college lowers odds of degree completion
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90% of all CPS grads who stopped out of college did not complete a degree within six years. Most students who did complete returned after only one semester off. If a student steps away, getting back quickly is critical.
“Everything that is college outside of the classroom, navigating campus, having to work, that was a big deal for me.”
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“Everything that is college outside of the classroom, navigating campus, having to work, that was a big deal for me. Having to actually have a job in order to afford just having money to feed yourself during school hours or just buying books… which it's something that's not really talked about at times too, how there's a lot of expenses outside of just tuition that a college student has to deal with.” — Sergio
4-year to 2-year higher ed transfers outpace the reverse
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Only 22% of students who immediately enrolled in a 2-year college eventually transferred to a 4-year–and just 7% completed a 4-year degree. Students on this path need a clear, supported plan to transfer successfully.
The path through college is rarely a straight line
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Most CPS graduates don’t simply enroll at a single institution and stay enrolled until completing their degree. Students and families need to plan for a non-linear path, and support systems that follow them through their journeys.
“Their tuition goes up every year. So that's actually one of the real reasons I transferred.”
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“Their tuition goes up every year. So that's actually one of the real reasons I transferred as well, because my full ride scholarship would no longer be a full ride…I'll eventually have to keep taking out bigger and bigger loans. So my $10,000 loan to go to a $15,000 loan to a $20,000 loan and so on.” — Arthur
Academic preparation alone doesn’t guarantee college success
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Finances, sense of belonging, campus bureaucracy, and other factors can lead students to unenroll. Success in college depends on more than academic preparation; it depends on the systems and supports around a student, too.
The typical college timeline doesn't fit most CPS students
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At every high school in the city, graduates — including high achievers — were more likely to complete a bachelor's degree within six years of graduating high school than in four years. Understanding this ahead of time helps students and families plan emotionally, financially, and logistically for what a college career actually looks like.
“He was asking me, ‘are you okay?’ And I was just like, ‘no.’”
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“I felt like I messed up. I felt like I didn't follow what I needed to do very well. And like, I remember even calling my dad around that time and he was asking me, ‘are you okay?’ And I was just like, ‘no.’ ” — Roxanne
Both 2-year and 4-year institutions play an important role
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Nearly 1 in 5 CPS graduates enrolled in both a 2-year college and a 4-year college at different points in their post-secondary journeys — a reminder that there is no single “right” path through higher ed. Students will likely interact with multiple postsecondary institutions and levels of the system along the way.
A CPS graduate’s first move after high school is significant
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Students who didn’t immediately enroll in college had a much lower chance of completing a degree: only 1 out of 10 completed a college degree or certificate within six years. Getting students enrolled right after college is one of the most effective steps in supporting their success.
“I was just confused about something with my tuition… It's literally texting a man who doesn't like you.”
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“I was just confused about something with my tuition.. It's literally texting a man who doesn't like you. I sent them an email…She replied, by not answering any of my questions…Do I have to mean for you guys to hear me? So then I was kind of passive aggressive and I was like, Hey, here are my questions. Please answer at least one of them. And then she did. So yeah, that's the financial aid office, right?” — Nafia