Chicago’s Progress and Insights on the Milestones that Matter

The To&Through Project Data Insights visualize how Chicago is faring on its quest to propel more students to and through high school and college, and illustrate the forces and factors that drive college success. Scroll down to explore, or download:

Click on a link below to view Data Insights on that topic. Does any one in particular stick with you? Tell us about which Data Insight and why.

Factors Driving Student Success	Chicago's Trajectory of Progress
Freshman Success	Attainment by Community Area
Sophomore Success	High School Graduation
Postsecondary Success	Immediate College Enrollment
	College Completion
	Projecting Future Attainment

Freshman Success: A Lever to Increase Future Attainment

Freshman OnTrack is more predictive of a student’s odds of graduating from high school than all other factors combined

Many more students failed core courses in 9th grade than they failed in 8th grade

Even high achieving students saw their core GPAs decline between 8th and 9th grade

A non-core failure was just as detrimental as a core failure to freshmen students’ likelihood of graduating from high school

The core GPAs of high-achieving Black students fell twice as much as those of their White and Asian peers

The PE/Health grades of Black and Latino young men fell almost a full letter grade (1.0 GPA point) from 8th to 9th grade

Students who did not end freshman year with a 3.0+ GPA had a difficult time attaining one by the time they graduated

Applying Lessons from Freshman Success to Sophomore Year

Many students who were on-track as freshmen fell off-track their sophomore year.

On-track freshmen who fell off-track sophomore year were significantly less likely to graduate from high school.

Students with a 3.0+ GPA freshman and sophomore year were most likely to immediately enroll in a 4-year college.

The Importance of Graduating GPAs and Immediate, Continuous Enrollment

Many CPS graduates who were academically qualified for college did not immediately enroll

Most students who completed a bachelor’s degree within 6 years had immediately enrolled in a 4-year college

Nearly 3 in 10 students who immediately enrolled in a 4-year college transferred to a 2-year college at some point

Stopping out of college was more common than remaining continuously enrolled until completion.

Students who stopped out, especially for two or more terms, were less likely to complete a college degree or certificate

GPAs — not ACT scores — are the strongest predictor of 4-year college graduation

A higher high school GPA increases the likelihood of immediate 4-year enrollees making it through college

A higher high school GPA increases the likelihood of immediate 2-year enrollees making it through college

Chicago’s Quest to Propel More Students To and Through

On average, bachelor’s degree holders receive a higher wage than those without a college degree

Chicago has made improvements in student attainment, but 2-year enrollment rates dipped during the pandemic’s onset

Chicago’s gains in immediate 4-year college enrollment have held steady, and completion rates improved in 2019

Chicago’s educational attainment has been catching up to the nation’s

Chicago Student Attainment by the Community Area in Which They Live

In Chicago, community areas in the West and Southwest had the most 2018–19 CPS ninth-graders

High school graduation rates by Chicago’s 77 community areas dramatically increased between 2002/2003 and 2019

There was less variation in high school graduation rates by students’ community area than by their high school

There was also less variation in immediate college enrollment rates by students’ community area than by their high school

College completion rates varied greatly by the community areas where students lived and the high schools they attended

Chicago’s Rising High School Graduation Rate

Chicago’s high school graduation rate has been increasing steadily each year

Chicago’s high school graduation rate has risen among students of nearly all races and genders

Although racial/ethnic disparities in Chicago’s high school graduation rate remain, they have decreased over time

Students who began as English Learners (ELs) graduated at a slightly higher rate than those who were never classified as ELs

Chicago's Immediate College Enrollment Rates

Chicago’s immediate college enrollment rate has improved since 2010 but declined in recent years

Since 2010, Chicago’s immediate college enrollment rate has not risen among all groups of students

Between 2017 and 2020, immediate college enrollment rates flattened or declined across all races/ethnicities

Students who began as ELs immediately enrolled in college at the same rate than those who were never classified as ELs

Are Chicago’s Immediate College Enrollees Completing Degrees?

More students have immediately enrolled in college: hundreds more earned a degree, and hundreds more left without one

After years of holding steady, the CPS college completion rate reached 46 percent among 2013 and 2014 CPS graduates

About 1 in 4 graduates who immediately enrolled in a 2-year college completed any degree or certificate

On average, about 1 out of every 4 immediate two-year enrollees completes any degree or certificate within 6 years

Fewer than 6 out of 10 graduates who immediately enrolled in a 4-year college completed any degree or certificate

How the Milestones That Matter Most for College Success Predict Students’ Future Attainment

If current rates hold, only 1 in 5 students who are ninth-graders in CPS will complete a bachelor’s degree within 10 years

The Postsecondary Attainment Index (PAI) projects the proportion of current CPS ninth-graders that will go on to complete any degree or certificate within 10 years

If current rates hold, 27 out of every 100 current CPS ninth-graders will complete a college credential within 10 years

If current rates hold, 13 out of every 100 Black young men who are ninth-graders in CPS will complete a college credential within 10 years

If current rates hold, 23 out of every 100 Black young women who are ninth-graders in CPS will complete a college credential within 10 years

If current rates hold, 21 out of every 100 Latino young men who are ninth-graders in CPS will complete a college credential within 10 years

If current rates hold, 35 out of every 100 Latina young women who are ninth-graders in CPS will complete a college credential within 10 years

If current rates hold, 44 out of every 100 White young men who are ninth-graders in CPS will complete a college credential within 10 years

If current rates hold, 57 out of every 100 White young women who are ninth-graders in CPS will complete a college credential within 10 years

If current rates hold, 51 out of every 100 Asian/Pacific Islander young men who are ninth-graders in CPS will complete a college credential

If current rates hold, 66 out of every 100 Asian/Pacific Islander young women who are ninth-graders in CPS will complete a college credential