Students’ 8th grade grades and attendance are the strongest predictors of their academic performance in high school—stronger than test scores, disciplinary history, study habits, or background characteristics. Knowing that the transition to high school can be challenging for all students, data on past performance can help educators ensure that students with high 8th grade GPAs and attendance maintain their strong performance as 9th graders, while students with lower 8th grade GPAs or attendance receive additional supports in high school in order to get on-track as 9th graders. It is important to remember, however, that despite its predictivity, 8th grade GPA and attendance should in no way limit the opportunities of individuals or groups of high school students.

Students who are on-track at the end of ninth grade are nearly three times more likely to graduate from high school than students who are off-track. A student is on-track if they earn at least 6.5 total credits by the end of ninth grade, meaning they can fail no more than 1 semester course (including non-core subjects). Additionally, students who obtain a 3.0 GPA or above in high school are more likely to graduate from a four-year college within six years.

Graduating high school with a high level of academic achievement is among the most important markers along the road to college success. Students who graduate from high school with a GPA of 3.0 or above have at least a 50 percent probability of graduating from a four-year college within six years. In order to graduate from high school on time, students must obtain a minimum of 24 credits.

Students’ choice of college influences their likelihood of earning a college degree. Students who choose a college with a strong track record of graduating its students, and which fits their unique financial, geographic, and cultural needs, are more likely to earn a college degree or credential. College may not be the best path for every student, but due to data limitations, we are not currently able to track outcomes for non-college pathways (for example, military service, trade school, workforce).

Completing a college degree or certificate is increasingly a primary pathway to social and economic stability in the 21st century. When considering a high school's effort to increase the educational attainment of its students, the college completion rate is a critical benchmark.

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